D K Bariar


Covid 19 pandemic- a complete scenario

The corona virus, third in series after Bird flu and Nepa virus is first detected in 2019 at Wuhan city of Hubei state of China. Where it is supposed that it spread from the virus corona which got mutated in meat market of Wuhan city through bats and Pangolin. These all are SARS related disease but corona is the deadliest. According to David Heymann, professor of Infectious disease Epidemiology at London School of hygiene and Tropical Medicine has said SARS emerge in one or two people but the current outbreak is explosive at the start and it started affecting many people and then each set has their own chain of transmission.

Today, it has spread over 136 countries of the world and infection rate is multifold, the corona started in Wuhan as epidemic and spread as pandemic. The spread factor is- one infected person infects other three persons in a day and it becomes 4 people, the next day it will be 4 x 3 + 4 = 16 and 16 X 3 + 16 = 64 and so on so forth. Within first few days, it has no sign and symptom but in second week the patient start showing the sign of snoozing, cough and headache, they feel trouble in breathing and require hospitalization for respirator as essential.

Ironically, the limited numbers of bed at hospital are not enough to meet the patient infected by corona. Also, there is acute shortage of doctors and paramedics, with paramount concern of their safety from corona. Hence makeshift arrangements are being made like rest houses, hotels and schools. They need mask, PPE, sanitizer and respirators, and these are in very short supply.  Every country is going through the same phase, hence local production is the only solution. India has made many arrangements to produce it locally.

There is no confirm medicine for this new disease. Recently, in some cases the use of hydroxychloroquine tablets ha shown some effectiveness and this is in great demand world over. The good point is India is a bid exporter of it. So, ICMR has allowed doctors to serve hydroxychloroquine tablet, which is used in treatment of malaria.

Corona virus spread through droplets of infected people by touching, coming in close contacts. The virus of corona can survive for several hours in air, 24 hours on cardboard, 2-3 hours on plastic and stainless steel. So, the spread is very quick and quantum is very high.

Stages of Growth in any Pandemic

So, just to fight Covid, it needs two prong strategy.

First, at social level we should not touch and come in contact with the infected people and places. So, identification of infected people and their isolation is important, to save non-infected people. By keeping them in house quarantine for mild symptom and hospitalization of the serious cases.

Secondly, the healthy people should be kept inside the house, may be called social lockdown of medical emergency.

Today there are above 2 million corona patients world over and the death figure is more than one lakh. The highest is in USA. In India the current figure is 13, 387 of which 11, 201 are active cases, 1749 recovered cases and death is 437. The whole world is facing lock down within there territory. India declare lockdown phase 1.0 is for three weeks, which passed successfully and now the lock down phase 2.0 is extended till 3rd May 2020. In lockdown 1.0 India has identified that, 170 districts are hot spots where active percent of cases are detected. Hence, in lockdown phase 2.0, gradual relaxation to other places with stringent action are mooted.

This is a good step. Since, the whole country cannot be penalized. The people as well as the country are paying very high price for this.

There is very thin margin between the probability and limitation and a good judgement keeping all prospective and conducive factor in mind may be taken into consideration for decision.

– the causality is two prong, the human factor and the economic factor. In phase 1.0 of lockdown, the primary concern was how to control the spread of the virus and take care of the affected people. In phase two of lockdown, the hotspots are identified, hence two prone activities can be applied. The affected areas shall be carded off and locked down. While the other areas may get relaxation and their economic activities may get started.

The social dynamics for spread of coronavirus is not found which is a good news and hence enthuse the government to take into consideration of economic factor.

– There is growing unemployment to the level of 28% for the general urban force.

– The production unit have come to grinding halt.

– The service industry come to stand-still and there is prediction that it will take a long time to rework and revive to its present level. The tourism, hotel industry, the entertainment and so on and so forth have to bite the irony.

– Rupee is sliding fast with comparison to dollar in international market. Affecting the import and export.

– The stock exchange and Nifty is touching new low in daily trading. Trillions of dollars have been lost.

So, there is stupendous task before the government to restart and rejuvenate economy. There is raising demand of support in the form of subsidy for MSME, tourism, hotels and transports etc. All are running in heavy loss and unable to survive without Government support.

In present scenario the government’s responsibility and timely action is the need of hour. The IMF has predicted the GDP growth for year 2020-21 at 1.80% which may prove vicious circle, where the economy may meet the recession. Some economist has predicted worse than 1930 economic recession.

Again, mentioning the limits and probability, government is to decided how to gradually open the offices and economic activities of industries and agriculture.  Agriculture is not in good shape also, the rabi crops are ready to cut but there is shortage of manpower and ensuring rainy season by the end of May, may causes catastrophe to agriculture. Before that the crop has to cut, stored and brought to Mandi for sale and the time left is one and half month, which is not enough.

Also, The corona spreading is not flattened yet. Only good judgement with foresight can save the humanity and economy.

Stay home, stay safe !

1 reply on “COVID-19”

A very well articulated article.. good read in the time of widespread corona virus (COVID 19).. nicely covered various aspects of impact that the country and countrymen are facing both on a personal and economic front..

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